中国草莓主产区布局变迁特征及影响因素研究

以草莓主产省份为研究对象，运用产业集中度指数、比较优势指数和莫兰指数分析了2002—2022年中国草莓生产的布局变迁情况，利用Dagum基尼系数分解了中国草莓生产比较优势的区域差异，通过构建面板模型探讨了中国草莓生产布局变迁的影响因素。研究发现：(1)中国草莓生产逐渐由集中走向分散，但仍处于高度聚集状态，呈现明显的“西迁南移”特征；具有规模比较优势和效率比较优势的省份数量保持稳定。(2)中国草莓生产存在显著的空间正相关性，具有高—高聚集和低—低聚集特征。(3)中国草莓生产的总体差异趋于缩小，区域间差异占比先下降后上升，区域内差异占比相对稳定。(4)中国草莓生产布局变化是供给侧与需求侧因素共同作用的结果，供给侧因素整体主导草莓生产布局变迁，尤其是自然条件，需求侧因素作用相对较弱。研究结论可为各地发挥比较优势、引导草莓生产布局优化提供参考。

This paper selects the major strawberry production as the research object, employs the industrial concentration index, comparative advantage index, and Moran’s index to analyze the layout from 2002 to 2022 of major strawberry production, and uses the Dagum Gini coefficient to decompose the regional differences of comparative advantages for strawberry production, and constructs a panel model to explore the factors affecting the changes in strawberry production layout in China. The results show that: (1) Strawberry production has gradually shifted from concentrated to dispersed, but it is still highly concentrated, and showed a significant westward and southward migration trend. Meanwhile, the number of provinces with comparative advantages in terms of scale and efficiency remained stable. (2) Strawberry production exhibits positive spatial autocorrelation, with high-high aggregation and low-low aggregation characteristics. (3) The overall differences of strawberry production tended to shrink, the proportion of inter-regional differences first decreased and then increased, and the proportion of intra-regional difference was relatively stable. (4) The changes in strawberry production layout were the result of the combined action of supply-side and demand-side factors. Supply-side factors generally dominated the layout changes of strawberry production, especially natural conditions, while the role of demand-side factors was relatively weak. The findings can provide valuable insights for localities to leverage their comparative advantages and guide the optimization of strawberry production layout.