消费税和燃油税的有效性比较分析: A comparison of effectiveness of consumption tax and fuel tax

本文以消费税和燃油税为主要研究对象，运用BLP模型分析汽车需求和供给，然后利用估计出的参数对消费税调整和燃油税征收进行情景模拟，得到了这两种税收对汽车消费、社会福利和能源消耗的影响。结果表明消费税确实能够使汽车消费向小排量车倾斜，新车的燃料利用率提高。而燃油税对汽车消费起到了抑制作用，大大减少了燃油消耗。两种税收都会造成社会福利损失，而消费税造成的损失较小。

This paper studies the taxes on cars and fuel by modeling the demand and supply of Chinese automobile market with the BLP model.counterfactual analyses of the adjustment of consumption tax and the implement of fuel tax are conducted.our results indicate that the consumption tax does increase the sales of low-displacement cars while reduce that of the high-displacement ones,by lowering the tax rate of low-displacement cars while raising that of the high-displacement ones.hence the adjustment of consumption tax improves the fuel efficiency of new cars. Meanwhile, the implement of fuel tax discourages the demand for cars, which significantly reduces fuel consumption. We also analyze the welfare effects of the two taxes.