自由贸易协定理论与实证研究综述

自由贸易协定 (FTA) 如雨后春笋，方兴未艾。在这篇综述文章里,首先提出一个分析框架来确定什么问题是重要的和需要进行研究的，继而指出哪些问题已经得到很好的回答，而哪些则还未得到足够的研究。在对FTA的福利分析和政策辩论中，贸易创造和贸易转移这一概念一直都占主导地位。政治经济学的方法非常适合用来解释国家间为什么签订FTA。现有的研究成功解释了FTA的外部性，即FTA对外部国家的影响。这种外部性引发其它国家或者加入现有的FTA，或者组成新的FTA。这最终导致更大的自由贸易区和更多的FTA的形成。至于FTA是如何形成的，哪些国家更可能达成FTA，这些问题需要进一步的研究。在研究这些问题时，需要把更多的结构 (例如国家之间的讨价还价和谈判) 引进到模型里。
Free trade agreements are prolific. This survey first introduces a framework which helps us pin down the most important questions to ask. Some issues have been well addressed in the literature, but some have not. Trade creation and trade diversion has been the dominating idea in the welfare analysis of FTAs and in policy debates. The political-economy approach is an appropriate one to explain why countries form FTAs. The literature has successfully analyzed the externalities of FTA, that is, an FTA’s effects on outsiders. The externalities induce other countries to join existing FTAs or form new FTAs, resulting in more FTAs and larger trading blocs. More researches should be done to explain how countries form FTAs and who are more likely to form FTAs. To answer these questions, we need models with more structures like bargaining and negotiations.