黑龙江省农业气象灾害与大豆产量的灰色关联分析

为深入探究黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆产量的影响，基于1987～2013年黑龙江省农业统计数据，分析了黑龙江省大豆产量和农业气象灾害变化特征，并构建一种基于灰色关联分析法的数理模型。该模型从受灾范围和灾害强度2方面入手构建受灾比率和相对灾损量指标，并划分为1987～1997、1998～2007和2008～2013年3个阶段进行研究。结果表明：黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆生产有负面影响；从受灾范围和受灾强度看，洪涝灾是黑龙江省大豆生产的关键农业气象灾害；旱灾对灾害强度影响大，对受灾范围影响小，而冷冻害的影响与旱灾相反；风雹灾对黑龙江大豆生产影响小；黑龙江大豆生产几乎不受台风灾的影响。

To explore the effects of agro-meteorological disasters on soybean yield in Heilongjiang province, the variation characteristics of soybean yield and agro-meteorological disasters is analyzed based on agricultural statistics from 1987 to 2013. The mathematical model based on grey correlation analysis method is designed. This model considered the disaster-affected range and the disaster intensity according to the disaster ratio and the relative disaster loss from three stages, namely, 1987-1997, 1998-2007 and 2008-2013. The results show that the agro-meteorological disasters had a negative impact on soybean yield in Heilongjiang province. In the riew of the disaster-affected range and the disaster intensity perspective, the flood disaster is the key agricultural meteorological disasters to influence soybean yield in Heilongjiang province. Effects of the drought disaster on disaster intensity are notable, but it is not marked in the disaster-affected range; effects of the freezing disaster on the disaster-affected range are notable, but it is not marked in the disaster intensity;soybean yield is less affected by the hailstorm disaster in Heilongjiang province; the typhoon disaster has almost no impact on soybean yield in Heilongjiang province.