A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the great depression between the principal industrial economies

James FOREMAN-PECK, Andrew Hughes HALLETT, Yue MA

Research output: Journal PublicationsJournal Article (refereed)Researchpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article describes and estimates, with monthly data, a model of the economic interactions between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany over the years 1927-1936. Despite the radically different economic environment, the model shows broadly similar qualitative and dynamic responses to policy instruments and other changes to those of multi-country models estimated on more recent data. The model is simulated to assess the causes of the Great Depression and the particular contribution of European and American policies to the slump. Optimum strategic policy equilibria are then computed. They point to the mismanagement of the US economy as the principal cause of the depression, although French and German policies were also harmful. British policymakers performed rather well, but their economy suffered because of the other countries' policy errors.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)515-544
Number of pages30
JournalEconomic Modelling
Volume17
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2000

Fingerprint

Great Depression
Econometric models
Multi-country model
Economic environment
Germany
Policy instruments
France
Politicians
Interaction
US economy
Economics
Dynamic response

Keywords

  • Great depression
  • Multicountry model
  • Optimal strategic policies

Cite this

FOREMAN-PECK, James ; HALLETT, Andrew Hughes ; MA, Yue. / A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the great depression between the principal industrial economies. In: Economic Modelling. 2000 ; Vol. 17, No. 4. pp. 515-544.
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A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the great depression between the principal industrial economies. / FOREMAN-PECK, James; HALLETT, Andrew Hughes; MA, Yue.

In: Economic Modelling, Vol. 17, No. 4, 01.12.2000, p. 515-544.

Research output: Journal PublicationsJournal Article (refereed)Researchpeer-review

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N2 - This article describes and estimates, with monthly data, a model of the economic interactions between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany over the years 1927-1936. Despite the radically different economic environment, the model shows broadly similar qualitative and dynamic responses to policy instruments and other changes to those of multi-country models estimated on more recent data. The model is simulated to assess the causes of the Great Depression and the particular contribution of European and American policies to the slump. Optimum strategic policy equilibria are then computed. They point to the mismanagement of the US economy as the principal cause of the depression, although French and German policies were also harmful. British policymakers performed rather well, but their economy suffered because of the other countries' policy errors.

AB - This article describes and estimates, with monthly data, a model of the economic interactions between the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany over the years 1927-1936. Despite the radically different economic environment, the model shows broadly similar qualitative and dynamic responses to policy instruments and other changes to those of multi-country models estimated on more recent data. The model is simulated to assess the causes of the Great Depression and the particular contribution of European and American policies to the slump. Optimum strategic policy equilibria are then computed. They point to the mismanagement of the US economy as the principal cause of the depression, although French and German policies were also harmful. British policymakers performed rather well, but their economy suffered because of the other countries' policy errors.

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