A unified model of distress risk puzzles

Zhiyao CHEN; Dirk HACKBARTH; Ilya A. STREBULAEV

doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.001

A unified model of distress risk puzzles

Zhiyao CHEN, Dirk HACKBARTH, Ilya A. STREBULAEV

Department of Finance and Insurance

Research output: Journal Publications › Journal Article (refereed) › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We document that (i) debt-to-equity ratios and levered equity betas negatively covary with the market risk premium in distressed firms; (ii) the negative covariance generates negative alphas among those firms. We build a dynamic credit risk model to understand the negative covariance between equity betas and the market risk premium, via endogenous and dynamic debt financing over the business cycles. Because of endogenous debt financing and distress, our model naturally connects the negative failure probability-return relation to the positive distress risk premium-return relation.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	357-384
Number of pages	28
Journal	Journal of Financial Economics
Volume	146
Issue number	2
Early online date	4 Aug 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.001
Publication status	Published - Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Bill Schwert was the editor for this article. We thank him and an anonymous referee for constructive suggestions. We also thank Philip Bond, Yasser Boualam, John Y. Campbell, Jaewon Choi, Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Hui Chen, Kent Daniel, Andrea Gamba, Amit Goyal, Yan Hong, Ron Kaniel, Hayne Leland, Jun Li, Thomas A. Mauer, Redouane Elkamhi, Lukas Schmid, and Sheridan Titman as well as conference and seminar participants at the American Finance Association annual conference (San Diego), the SFS Cavalcade meetings (Carnegie Mellon), the European Finance Association meetings (Lisbon), the Cambridge corporate finance theory symposium, the 2nd World Symposium on Investment Research (New York), the COAP conference (CASS and Inquire UK), CAFIN Workshop in Finance, the Greater Bay Area Finance Conference, the CUHK internal research workshop, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics for investment research for valuable comments. Zhiyao Chen acknowledges financial support from the General Research Fund by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council [grant number 14519816].

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021

Keywords

Distress risk premium
Failure probability
Endogenous debt financing
Endogenous distress
Financial leverage

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10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.001

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title = "A unified model of distress risk puzzles",

abstract = "We document that (i) debt-to-equity ratios and levered equity betas negatively covary with the market risk premium in distressed firms; (ii) the negative covariance generates negative alphas among those firms. We build a dynamic credit risk model to understand the negative covariance between equity betas and the market risk premium, via endogenous and dynamic debt financing over the business cycles. Because of endogenous debt financing and distress, our model naturally connects the negative failure probability-return relation to the positive distress risk premium-return relation.",

keywords = "Distress risk premium, Failure probability, Endogenous debt financing, Endogenous distress, Financial leverage",

author = "Zhiyao CHEN and Dirk HACKBARTH and STREBULAEV, {Ilya A.}",

note = "Funding Information: Bill Schwert was the editor for this article. We thank him and an anonymous referee for constructive suggestions. We also thank Philip Bond, Yasser Boualam, John Y. Campbell, Jaewon Choi, Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Hui Chen, Kent Daniel, Andrea Gamba, Amit Goyal, Yan Hong, Ron Kaniel, Hayne Leland, Jun Li, Thomas A. Mauer, Redouane Elkamhi, Lukas Schmid, and Sheridan Titman as well as conference and seminar participants at the American Finance Association annual conference (San Diego), the SFS Cavalcade meetings (Carnegie Mellon), the European Finance Association meetings (Lisbon), the Cambridge corporate finance theory symposium, the 2nd World Symposium on Investment Research (New York), the COAP conference (CASS and Inquire UK), CAFIN Workshop in Finance, the Greater Bay Area Finance Conference, the CUHK internal research workshop, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics for investment research for valuable comments. Zhiyao Chen acknowledges financial support from the General Research Fund by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council [grant number 14519816]. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021",

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AU - HACKBARTH, Dirk

AU - STREBULAEV, Ilya A.

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N2 - We document that (i) debt-to-equity ratios and levered equity betas negatively covary with the market risk premium in distressed firms; (ii) the negative covariance generates negative alphas among those firms. We build a dynamic credit risk model to understand the negative covariance between equity betas and the market risk premium, via endogenous and dynamic debt financing over the business cycles. Because of endogenous debt financing and distress, our model naturally connects the negative failure probability-return relation to the positive distress risk premium-return relation.

AB - We document that (i) debt-to-equity ratios and levered equity betas negatively covary with the market risk premium in distressed firms; (ii) the negative covariance generates negative alphas among those firms. We build a dynamic credit risk model to understand the negative covariance between equity betas and the market risk premium, via endogenous and dynamic debt financing over the business cycles. Because of endogenous debt financing and distress, our model naturally connects the negative failure probability-return relation to the positive distress risk premium-return relation.

KW - Distress risk premium

KW - Failure probability

KW - Endogenous debt financing

KW - Endogenous distress

KW - Financial leverage

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DO - 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.001

M3 - Journal Article (refereed)

SN - 0304-405X

VL - 146

SP - 357

EP - 384

JO - Journal of Financial Economics

JF - Journal of Financial Economics

IS - 2

ER -

A unified model of distress risk puzzles

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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