Addressing the Crisis of Shortage in Chinese Elderly Care Workers : A Multi-Strategy Simulation and Supply-Demand Optimization Model Based on NSGA-III

To address the severe supply-demand mismatch in China's elderly care industry, this paper proposes a high-dimensional matching model based on the NSGA-III algorithm. Existing methods fail to balance four conflicting objectives: operating costs, response efficiency, workload balance, and skill matching. This study applies a reference-point mechanism to maintain population diversity in the objective space. Comparative experiments demonstrate that NSGA-III significantly outperforms classic algorithms like NSGA-II. Furthermore, simulations of decision scenarios reveal that the "market-coordinated"strategy, utilizing a knee-point approach, successfully reduces caregiver workload variance without significantly increasing operating costs. This research provides quantitative decision support for alleviating the workforce shortage by effectively balancing financial burdens and personnel turnover risks.