Ambient concrete carbonation is a trivial contributor in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from cement production

Rui XIAO; Dale PRENTICE; Manas SARKAR; Aditya KUMAR; Fabian ROSNER; Narayanan NEITHALATH; Erika LA PLANTE; Mathieu BAUCHY; Gaurav SANT

doi:10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9

Ambient concrete carbonation is a trivial contributor in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from cement production

Rui XIAO
, Dale PRENTICE
, Manas SARKAR
, Aditya KUMAR
, Fabian ROSNER
, Narayanan NEITHALATH
, Erika LA PLANTE
, Mathieu BAUCHY
, Gaurav SANT^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Wu Jieh Yee School of Interdisciplinary Studies

Research output: Journal Publications › Journal Article (refereed) › peer-review

Abstract

Ambient carbonation—the passive uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the alkaline pore solution of concrete—has been proposed to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from cement production. Herein, we apply thermodynamic and diffusion-based analyses within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the extent and rate of ambient carbonation across concrete formulations and geometries (i.e., described by their surface-to-volume ratio, ranging between 0.01-to-80, /m), globally. The analysis indicates that, by 2030, the carbonation of concrete placed in service, globally, under ambient conditions, is projected to uptake around 0.23 gigatonnes annually (i.e., <10% of annual cement clinker emissions). Thus, the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by ambient carbonation is negligible compared to the quantities emitted during cement production. Importantly, this analysis underscores the importance of prioritizing near-term industrial decarbonization and of advancing intentional climate change mitigation solutions that deliver meaningful and timely reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.

Original language	English
Article number	118
Number of pages	14
Journal	Communications Sustainability
Volume	1
Issue number	1
Early online date	25 Jul 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9
Publication status	Published - 2026

Funding

The authors acknowledge financial support for this research from the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative/Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative Foundation; the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment; the U.S. Department of Energy: Office of Fossil Energy via the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL; DE-FE0031915); U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (RECLAIM: DE-AR0001777); U.S. National Science Foundation CAREER Award 2342381; U.S. Department of Energy’s 7th Clean Energy Manufacturing Innovation Institute—Electrified Processes for Industrial Excellence (EPIXC; DE-EE 0010725); the Future Manufacturing Program of the U.S National Science Foundation (DMR 2228782); the University of California’s Office of the President via the Carbon Neutrality Initiative (UCOP-CNI); the Anthony Pritzker Family Foundation, and the Pritzker Endowed Chair in Sustainability. As such, the authors gratefully acknowledge the support provided by these laboratories.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Ambient concrete carbonation is a trivial contributor in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from cement production",

abstract = "Ambient carbonation—the passive uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the alkaline pore solution of concrete—has been proposed to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from cement production. Herein, we apply thermodynamic and diffusion-based analyses within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the extent and rate of ambient carbonation across concrete formulations and geometries (i.e., described by their surface-to-volume ratio, ranging between 0.01-to-80, /m), globally. The analysis indicates that, by 2030, the carbonation of concrete placed in service, globally, under ambient conditions, is projected to uptake around 0.23 gigatonnes annually (i.e., <10\% of annual cement clinker emissions). Thus, the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by ambient carbonation is negligible compared to the quantities emitted during cement production. Importantly, this analysis underscores the importance of prioritizing near-term industrial decarbonization and of advancing intentional climate change mitigation solutions that deliver meaningful and timely reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.",

author = "Rui XIAO and Dale PRENTICE and Manas SARKAR and Aditya KUMAR and Fabian ROSNER and Narayanan NEITHALATH and \{LA PLANTE\}, Erika and Mathieu BAUCHY and Gaurav SANT",

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doi = "10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9",

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T1 - Ambient concrete carbonation is a trivial contributor in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from cement production

AU - XIAO, Rui

AU - PRENTICE, Dale

AU - SARKAR, Manas

AU - KUMAR, Aditya

AU - ROSNER, Fabian

AU - NEITHALATH, Narayanan

AU - LA PLANTE, Erika

AU - BAUCHY, Mathieu

AU - SANT, Gaurav

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - Ambient carbonation—the passive uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the alkaline pore solution of concrete—has been proposed to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from cement production. Herein, we apply thermodynamic and diffusion-based analyses within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the extent and rate of ambient carbonation across concrete formulations and geometries (i.e., described by their surface-to-volume ratio, ranging between 0.01-to-80, /m), globally. The analysis indicates that, by 2030, the carbonation of concrete placed in service, globally, under ambient conditions, is projected to uptake around 0.23 gigatonnes annually (i.e., <10% of annual cement clinker emissions). Thus, the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by ambient carbonation is negligible compared to the quantities emitted during cement production. Importantly, this analysis underscores the importance of prioritizing near-term industrial decarbonization and of advancing intentional climate change mitigation solutions that deliver meaningful and timely reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.

AB - Ambient carbonation—the passive uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the alkaline pore solution of concrete—has been proposed to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from cement production. Herein, we apply thermodynamic and diffusion-based analyses within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the extent and rate of ambient carbonation across concrete formulations and geometries (i.e., described by their surface-to-volume ratio, ranging between 0.01-to-80, /m), globally. The analysis indicates that, by 2030, the carbonation of concrete placed in service, globally, under ambient conditions, is projected to uptake around 0.23 gigatonnes annually (i.e., <10% of annual cement clinker emissions). Thus, the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered by ambient carbonation is negligible compared to the quantities emitted during cement production. Importantly, this analysis underscores the importance of prioritizing near-term industrial decarbonization and of advancing intentional climate change mitigation solutions that deliver meaningful and timely reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.

U2 - 10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9

DO - 10.1038/s44458-026-00116-9

M3 - Journal Article (refereed)

SN - 3059-4308

VL - 1

JO - Communications Sustainability

JF - Communications Sustainability

IS - 1

M1 - 118

ER -

Ambient concrete carbonation is a trivial contributor in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions from cement production

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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