Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong : a small-area ecological study

Thuan Quoc THACH, Qishi ZHENG, Poh Chin LAI, Pui Yun, Paulina WONG, Yuen Kwan, Patsy CHAU, Heiko J. JAHN, Dietrich PLASS, Lutz KATZSCHNER, Alexander KRAEMER, Chit Ming WONG

Research output: Journal PublicationsJournal Article (refereed)Researchpeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aims: Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. Methods: A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. Results: We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1 °C change in PET was associated with an excess risk (%) of 2.99 (95% CI: 0.50–5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14–8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64–10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Conclusions: Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)666-672
Number of pages7
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume502
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2015
Externally publishedYes

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Thermal stress
mortality
temperature
Temperature
Planning
Health
Pulmonary diseases
respiratory disease
Thermal comfort
cardiovascular disease
Autocorrelation
autocorrelation
targeting
Economics

Cite this

THACH, Thuan Quoc ; ZHENG, Qishi ; LAI, Poh Chin ; WONG, Pui Yun, Paulina ; CHAU, Yuen Kwan, Patsy ; JAHN, Heiko J. ; PLASS, Dietrich ; KATZSCHNER, Lutz ; KRAEMER, Alexander ; WONG, Chit Ming. / Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong : a small-area ecological study. In: Science of the Total Environment. 2015 ; Vol. 502. pp. 666-672.
@article{9c0d0156e38f455dbdf5c79e3ac4c5d0,
title = "Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong : a small-area ecological study",
abstract = "Aims: Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. Methods: A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. Results: We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1 °C change in PET was associated with an excess risk ({\%}) of 2.99 (95{\%} CI: 0.50–5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14–8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64–10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Conclusions: Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality.",
author = "THACH, {Thuan Quoc} and Qishi ZHENG and LAI, {Poh Chin} and WONG, {Pui Yun, Paulina} and CHAU, {Yuen Kwan, Patsy} and JAHN, {Heiko J.} and Dietrich PLASS and Lutz KATZSCHNER and Alexander KRAEMER and WONG, {Chit Ming}",
year = "2015",
month = "1",
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doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.09.057",
language = "English",
volume = "502",
pages = "666--672",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
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publisher = "Elsevier",

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Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong : a small-area ecological study. / THACH, Thuan Quoc; ZHENG, Qishi; LAI, Poh Chin; WONG, Pui Yun, Paulina; CHAU, Yuen Kwan, Patsy; JAHN, Heiko J.; PLASS, Dietrich; KATZSCHNER, Lutz; KRAEMER, Alexander; WONG, Chit Ming.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 502, 01.01.2015, p. 666-672.

Research output: Journal PublicationsJournal Article (refereed)Researchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong : a small-area ecological study

AU - THACH, Thuan Quoc

AU - ZHENG, Qishi

AU - LAI, Poh Chin

AU - WONG, Pui Yun, Paulina

AU - CHAU, Yuen Kwan, Patsy

AU - JAHN, Heiko J.

AU - PLASS, Dietrich

AU - KATZSCHNER, Lutz

AU - KRAEMER, Alexander

AU - WONG, Chit Ming

PY - 2015/1/1

Y1 - 2015/1/1

N2 - Aims: Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. Methods: A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. Results: We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1 °C change in PET was associated with an excess risk (%) of 2.99 (95% CI: 0.50–5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14–8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64–10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Conclusions: Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality.

AB - Aims: Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. Methods: A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. Results: We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1 °C change in PET was associated with an excess risk (%) of 2.99 (95% CI: 0.50–5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14–8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64–10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Conclusions: Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality.

UR - http://commons.ln.edu.hk/sw_master/6177

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.09.057

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.09.057

M3 - Journal Article (refereed)

VL - 502

SP - 666

EP - 672

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

ER -