Chief executive and cabinet member approval in Hong Kong: a rolling-window Granger causality analysis

The interaction between public approval of the head of government and cabinet members represents a crucial yet surprisingly underexplored area of research. This note applies a rolling-window Granger causality test to the case of Hong Kong, which resembles a presidential system and is characterized by highly volatile interconnections. The findings reveal a nuanced bilateral relationship. First, the approval ratings of the Chief Secretary for Administration closely correlate with those of the Chief Executive. Second, the Chief Executive has a greater impact on the popularity of key cabinet members than vice versa. Finally, following the 2019 protests, the popularity of all officials increasingly depends on the Chief Executive’s standing. This study also offers policy implications and suggests directions for future research.