Dynamic spatial–temporal model for carbon emission forecasting

Addressing the urgent need for accurate carbon emissions forecasting to support global emissions reduction goals, this paper introduces a novel approach for carbon emissions prediction that dynamically considers the spatial–temporal correlation of carbon emissions across forecasting targets. Traditional statistical and machine learning models have limitations, such as oversimplification and inefficiency in capturing evolving dynamics among multiple forecasting targets, alongside a focus on longer forecasting horizons like monthly or yearly. To tackle these, we propose an innovative Dynamic Spatial–Temporal Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (DSTGCRN), a blend of graph convolutional and recurrent neural network structures customized for up-to-date multi-regional spatial–temporal predictions at a daily level. Comprehensive empirical analyses on datasets from China, the US, and the EU confirm DSTGCRN's superior performance and robustness across diverse geographical contexts. It outperforms the second-best among 10 baseline models, achieving 40.6%, 24.6%, and 38.5% improvements in MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, respectively, across various horizons. The incorporation of environmental data, including temperature and Air Quality Index, as supplementary predictors in the DSTGCRN model, has demonstrated its efficacy in the context of the China dataset. The DSTGCRN model's improved accuracy and daily multi-regional forecasting deepen emission dynamics understanding, supporting the development of informed and region-specific environmental policies that can respond promptly to changes.