Ecological Correlates of 20-Year Population Trends of Wintering Waterbirds in Deep Bay, South China

Along the East Asian-Australasian flyway (EAAF), waterbirds are threatened by a wide range of human activities. Studies have shown that wintering populations of many species have declined in Australia and Japan; however, long term data along China’s coast are limited. In this study, we analyzed data collected from monthly bird surveys to quantify population trends of wintering waterbirds from 1998 to 2017 in the Deep Bay area, South China. Of the 42 species studied, 12 declined, while nine increased significantly. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed that population trends were negatively correlated to reliance on the Yellow Sea and body size. Further, waterbird species breeding in Southern Siberia declined more than those breeding in East Asia. These findings, coupled with a relatively high number of increasing species, support the continual preservation of wetlands in the Deep Bay area. This study provides another case study showing that data collected from wintering sites provide insights on the threats along migratory pathway and inform conservation actions. As such, we encourage population surveys in the EAAF to continue, particularly along the coast of China.