Electric vs. Combustion Vehicles: A QCA‑Based Life‑Cycle Carbon Evaluation

This study applies Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to examine the life‑cycle carbon performance of a Porsche Panamera (internal combustion engine vehicle, ICEV) and a Tesla Model Y (battery electric vehicle, BEV). Instead of treating drivetrain technology as determinative, the analysis conceptualizes lower life‑cycle greenhouse gas emissions as a configurational outcome shaped by multiple interacting conditions. Four principal conditions are evaluated: (1) low‑carbon electricity mix, (2) high lifetime vehicle mileage, (3) efficient road and traffic infrastructure, and (4) low‑carbon upstream energy pathways.

Using a crisp‑set QCA framework, the findings suggest that a relatively low‑carbon electricity mix functions as a near‑necessary condition for the BEV to achieve a clear life‑cycle emissions advantage. However, electricity decarbonization alone is not sufficient. The BEV advantage becomes consistently observable only when low‑carbon electricity is combined with sufficient lifetime mileage to offset higher production emissions associated with battery manufacturing. Infrastructure efficiency and upstream energy governance operate as contributory conditions that strengthen consistency but do not independently determine the outcome.

The analysis demonstrates causal asymmetry: while BEV superiority requires alignment across multiple conditions, a carbon‑intensive electricity grid alone can negate this advantage, even when other conditions are favourable. The results indicate that the comparative carbon ranking of BEVs and ICEVs is configurational rather than technology‑intrinsic. Decarbonization of mobility therefore depends on systemic alignment across energy production, infrastructure design, and usage intensity, rather than on vehicle electrification in isolation.