Hypotheses Testing for the Structural-Demographic Model for Political Instability and Social Unrest

Western societies are increasingly facing higher levels of political polarization and social unrest. Scholars seek to examine variables that may drive or predict political instability using comparative political theories that typically involve extensive use of inferential statistical methods. This paper explores a different path which shows the use of mathematical modelling to forecast the political unrest in Chile, the Latin American country. The model is based on the structural-demographic theory proposed by Goldstone (2017) and subsequently refined by P. Turchin and A. Korotayev (2020). In short, the main contribution of this paper is to apply and test other hypotheses that can explain the rise of political stress, such as dissatisfaction with austerity policies reminiscent of neoliberal orders followed by most Latin American countries, and/or the intense competition for surplus caused by rapid social mobility.