Inter-regional Integration of Metropolitan Cluster among Shanghai, Taipei, Hong Kong, and Macao = 大都市城市群的經濟互動與整合 : 滬臺港澳的實證研究

The economic integration of the metropolitan cluster of the four cities among Shanghai, Taipei, Hong Kong and Macao have been developed speedily in recent years, especially after both mainland China and Taiwan joined the WTO at the end of 2001. Based on the principle of the law of one price, this paper examines the inflation rate differentials among these four cities to evaluate the degree of economic integration among them. Applying the state-of-the-art time series unit root tests, it was revealed that the degree of real integration among Taipei, Hong Kong, and Macao is higher than that among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Macao. Shanghai has some economic integration with Taipei, probably it was driven by the complemtarity of the two technology industries across the strait. However, the integration is far from complete within these four cities. This signifies the importance of policy support during the inter-regional integration process. The development of a free trade area among them, and with mainland China and Taiwan as a whole, may also promote the regional integration endogenously.

本文通過跨境流量指標和價格差異指標，探討滬港澳及臺北城市群的市場整合程度。從跨境流量指標來看，滬港澳臺地區的貿易已有一定整合。但由于跨境流量指標的局限性，它們難以反應兩地區的整合程度。譬如，貿易量不能揭示貿易壁壘對整合程度的影響。因此本文進一步採用價格差異指標，測量地區間的整合程度。因為在經濟一體化的情况下，價格差異應是零均值的平穩時間序列。通過實證檢驗，本文發現港、澳、臺北市之間的經濟整合程度，高于上海與港澳兩地的經濟整合程度。由于兩岸科技產業的互補性，上海與臺北市有一定的經濟整合。但滬港澳臺北之間的整合，都遠未達到完全一體化的程度。這說明政府政策在區域整合過程中的重要性。大陸與港澳最近簽訂的自由貿易區的協定，也許能進一步推動區域間的內生性的整合過程。