Predisposing Drivers of Skilled Migration: Re-examining the self-selection hypothesis in Africa

Cross-border migration of skilled individuals has socioeconomic significance for both sending and receiving societies globally. Borjas’ self-selection theory often explains skilled migration by postulating that variations in economic and political conditions predispose skilled individuals to consider cross-border migration. However, empirical work accurately testing the hypotheses in Borjas’ self-selection theory is rare. The only existing study that tested these hypotheses examined how income distribution predisposes skilled Europeans to consider migration, but failed to control for other theoretically relevant predisposing factors such as human development and unfavourable political conditions. In Africa, the current context for this paper, skilled migration to other countries has become the norm, dominating debates on its costs and benefits for the continent. What is lacking in the literature is empirical work that delineates the predisposing drivers of skilled African migration. To address this gap, the current paper re-examines the hypotheses in Borjas’ self-selection theory using microdata on adults from 33 African countries. The paper founds that income inequality reverses the positive effect of higher education on migration intention in Africa, even after controlling for the effect of political terror, unequal economic opportunity, and higher human development, confirming the wealth maximization hypothesis by Borjas. The paper also further compares how the self-selection hypothesis works among highly educated individuals’ intentions to migrate specifically to Africa, Europe, North America, or other regions, versus those without concrete migration plans. The paper reveals that, Borjas’ hypothesis holds for migration intentions from Africa to North America and Europe. The implications of these findings are discussed.