This paper aims to investigate the perceived risk after the Tianjin port explosion event and its impact on property value. In addition to focusing on the relationship between homebuyers' risk perception and property sales price, this paper also considers the risk perception of property sellers via the sale-to-list ratio. By using the difference-in-differences method and the sample from the property agent, we found that the explosion event generated a long-time effect on the public and property market in the city of Tianjin. Relative to those properties far away from the explosion site, the sales price and the sale-to-list ratio of the property near the explosion site were detected to have significant drops for the first six months after the explosion event. The temporal decrease of the relative sales price and the sale-to-list ratio are the evidence of short period overreaction from the public, which decays over time. This study demonstrates an indirect method to estimate the perceived risk of the general public and provides valuable insight into sustainable port management policies.
Bibliographical noteAuthor Contributions:
This paper was conducted by Y.H., T.L.Y. and C.L. Y.H. contributed to research idea initiation and draft the first version of the manuscript. T.L.Y. contributed to the research methods and research design. C.L. contributed to data collection and data analysis. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
This research was funded by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University grant number G-YBTM (P0009561) and 1-YW3L (P0000319).
There authors thank the guest editors, Dr Kum Fai Yuen and Dr Yiik Diew Wong and three referees for their critical comments and helpful suggestions. This paper is a substantially revised and extended version of a paper presented at 2018 World Transport Convention, Beijing, China.
© 2020 by the authors.
- Property value
- Risk perception
- The housing market
- Tianjin port explosion