Social Policy and Childbearing Intentions in Northeast China: a Factorial Survey

Despite recent policy changes, birth rates in northeast China have declined, falling below the replacement level. The ensuing accelerated demographic transition has led to a debate regarding the efficacy of working family support and how it may affect fertility and childrearing decisions. To shed light on this issue, a quasi-experimental survey was conducted in Shenyang - the largest city in northeast China to explore the effects of social policies on childbearing intentions. The findings suggest while policies promoting home ownership, reduced working hours, gender equality, and direct financial aid positively influence childbearing intentions, dual-earner-carer policies like parental leave and childcare show negligible impact. Beyond policy, gender and socio-economic status emerge as critical factors, with males and higher-earning married respondents showing a propensity for larger families. The economic context, especially in the post-COVID-19 era, further complicates this intricate interplay of factors. We conclude that a holistic approach to understanding childbearing intention in the Chinese context is needed and that cultural factors and local context must be carefully considered when adapting Western discourses around familisation risks, defamilisation, and decommodification. Overall, this study highlights the need for a comprehensive, integrated strategy, marking a pathway for future research and policy innovation aimed at a balanced demographic transition in China, aligning with its unique cultural and economic landscape. Keywords: childbearing intention, working family support, family policy, institutional complementarity, factorial survey.