Spatial-temporal dynamics of coal production and thermal power development in China: a coupling coordination perspective

Accelerating the coal-power integration is of great significance for enhancing energy security capability of China. We employ the entropy method to construct a measurement system for coal production (CP) and thermal power (TP). Subsequently, using a coupling coordination degree model, we calculate the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between CP and TP, further examining their spatial-temporal patterns, regional disparities, and influencing factors based on panel data from 31 provinces from 2011 to 2022. The results indicate that: (1) During the study period, the level of CP shows a downward trend, while the level of TP exhibits an upward trend. (2) CCD demonstrates fluctuating growth, maintaining overall medium coupling coordination. (3) CCD exhibits distinct spatial differentiation, presenting a pattern of high in northern China, and low in southern China. (4) CCD displays significant spatial autocorrelation, showing a clustering pattern of high-high or low-low values. (5) Regional variations of CCD primarily originate from inter-regional disparities, with increasing contribution. (6) The econometric model indicates that coal resource endowment (CR), roads (RO), industrial structure (IS), and grid safety (GS) significantly enhance CCD, while power load (PL), clean energy substitution (CE), and transmission lines (TL) exhibit negative effects. Geographical detector results reveal that CR, IS, and GS are the primary drivers for CCD. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed for relevant government agencies.