Abstract
Housing price becomes a popular topic among nearly most of the investors in major Chinese cities. Recently, the housing markets appears to have shown signs of overheating and nonstationary trends, attributable to the collapse of the global economic environment and the introduction of local policies. The purpose of this study is to investigate if abrupt structural changes, which can be viewed as the effectiveness of government regulations and economic events but hidden in the housing price index, exist. An improved nonparametric statistical model, namely the wavelet detection technique, is introduced in this paper, based on which jump point(s) can be identified. Our empirical study illustrates that the domino effect as suggested by the detected change points are, geographically, from south to north, and from east to west, in contrast with general understanding. This may be a result of the owner-occupier demand in China’s housing markets.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Journal of Urban Planning and Development |
| Volume | 142 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Early online date | 9 Jul 2015 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2016 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
The authors also thank Mr. Ka-hung Yu for his technical and editorial assistance, and thanks to the Staff of China Data Center of the University of Michigan. This study was funded by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University's Internal Grants (G-U755, G-YK32 and 4-ZZC1).
Keywords
- Jump-point detection
- Non-parametric statistical model
- Residential house price index
- Wavelet analysis
- Housing policies
- China
- Real estate
