The Dynamics of Energy and Maritime Security in the Horn of Africa : Red Sea Transits and Geopolitical Implications

The Horn of Africa (HoA) has historically been a hotspot for great power competition due to its strategic location at the southwest gate to the Red Sea, linking European markets with Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. This chapter delves into the intricate relationships between energy security, geopolitics, and foreign interventions in the HoA, impacting regional stability. During the Cold War, superpower rivalries incited proxy wars and interstate conflicts, leading to Somalia’s collapse, Eritrea’s secession, and Sudan’s fragmentation. Post-Cold War, transnational terrorism and Somali piracy prompted further interventions. The US-led “War on Terror” influenced South Sudan’s secession and further fragmented Somalia and Sudan, while bolstering neighbouring Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

The rise of Somali piracy in 2008 resulted in the region’s militarization, with foreign powers setting up naval and military bases, thereby exacerbating Somalia’s instability. Since 2014, Gulf states’ interventions, driven by strategic interests and rivalries, have entrenched the fragmentation of Somalia and Sudan while aiding Eritrea and Ethiopia’s rapprochement. As the HoA becomes a potential source of fossil fuels and critical minerals essential for the energy transition, it is increasingly entangled in Indo-Pacific security dynamics, particularly the intensifying US–China competition, which could significantly impact regional stability. Given the history of foreign interventions and their often-adverse effects, the HoA’s future will be shaped by the delicate balance of energy security, geopolitics, and the strategic decisions of regional and global actors.