The effectiveness and consequences of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing markets

Yongheng DENG; Congyan HAN; Teng LI; Yonglin WANG

doi:10.1111/1540-6229.12472

The effectiveness and consequences of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing markets

Yongheng DENG, Congyan HAN^*, Teng LI, Yonglin WANG

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Economics

Research output: Journal Publications › Journal Article (refereed) › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We study the effectiveness, consequences, and transmission mechanisms of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing market between 2009 and 2017. We use granular microlevel transaction data and adopt a regression discontinuity design to conduct the empirical analysis. We find that mortgage-tightening measures effectively curbed the overheated market by reducing price and volume while specific submarkets occasionally experienced volatility. Tax-driven measures effectively suppressed trading activity but triggered price volatilities across submarkets. Several rounds of measures had a spillover effect on subsidized public housing. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to review and revise property market intervention policies in Hong Kong and elsewhere.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	324-365
Number of pages	42
Journal	Real Estate Economics
Volume	52
Issue number	2
Early online date	5 Jan 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12472
Publication status	Published - Mar 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors. Real Estate Economics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Funding

The authors thank Xiangdong Wei, Jing Wu, and Ho Lok Sang for their valuable comments. Wang thanks the Public Policy Research Funding Scheme funded by PICO, the Government of Hong Kong SAR (Grant Number 2020.A3.025.20C) and General Research Fund funded by Hong Kong RGC (Grant Number 13605120) for their financial support.

Keywords

Hong Kong
house prices
housing
intervention measures
trading volumes

Access to Document

10.1111/1540-6229.12472Licence: CC BY-NC

Cite this

@article{c8dd3cfe552349b6afa0f1b2fc87aee7,

title = "The effectiveness and consequences of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing markets",

abstract = "We study the effectiveness, consequences, and transmission mechanisms of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing market between 2009 and 2017. We use granular microlevel transaction data and adopt a regression discontinuity design to conduct the empirical analysis. We find that mortgage-tightening measures effectively curbed the overheated market by reducing price and volume while specific submarkets occasionally experienced volatility. Tax-driven measures effectively suppressed trading activity but triggered price volatilities across submarkets. Several rounds of measures had a spillover effect on subsidized public housing. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to review and revise property market intervention policies in Hong Kong and elsewhere.",

keywords = "Hong Kong, house prices, housing, intervention measures, trading volumes",

author = "Yongheng DENG and Congyan HAN and Teng LI and Yonglin WANG",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The Authors. Real Estate Economics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.",

year = "2024",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1111/1540-6229.12472",

language = "English",

volume = "52",

pages = "324--365",

journal = "Real Estate Economics",

issn = "1080-8620",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The effectiveness and consequences of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing markets

AU - DENG, Yongheng

AU - HAN, Congyan

AU - LI, Teng

AU - WANG, Yonglin

PY - 2024/3

Y1 - 2024/3

N2 - We study the effectiveness, consequences, and transmission mechanisms of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing market between 2009 and 2017. We use granular microlevel transaction data and adopt a regression discontinuity design to conduct the empirical analysis. We find that mortgage-tightening measures effectively curbed the overheated market by reducing price and volume while specific submarkets occasionally experienced volatility. Tax-driven measures effectively suppressed trading activity but triggered price volatilities across submarkets. Several rounds of measures had a spillover effect on subsidized public housing. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to review and revise property market intervention policies in Hong Kong and elsewhere.

AB - We study the effectiveness, consequences, and transmission mechanisms of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing market between 2009 and 2017. We use granular microlevel transaction data and adopt a regression discontinuity design to conduct the empirical analysis. We find that mortgage-tightening measures effectively curbed the overheated market by reducing price and volume while specific submarkets occasionally experienced volatility. Tax-driven measures effectively suppressed trading activity but triggered price volatilities across submarkets. Several rounds of measures had a spillover effect on subsidized public housing. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to review and revise property market intervention policies in Hong Kong and elsewhere.

KW - Hong Kong

KW - house prices

KW - housing

KW - intervention measures

KW - trading volumes

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85181517769&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/1540-6229.12472

DO - 10.1111/1540-6229.12472

M3 - Journal Article (refereed)

SN - 1080-8620

VL - 52

SP - 324

EP - 365

JO - Real Estate Economics

JF - Real Estate Economics

IS - 2

ER -

The effectiveness and consequences of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing markets

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Cooling measures in Hong Kong and its residential property market

How Unaffordable is Hong Kong's Housing Market? (為何香港樓價如此難以負擔？)

Cite this

The effectiveness and consequences of the government's interventions for Hong Kong's residential housing markets

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Projects

Cooling measures in Hong Kong and its residential property market

How Unaffordable is Hong Kong's Housing Market? (為何香港樓價如此難以負擔？)

Cite this