This paper presents the theory and the evidence showing the close relationship between the performance of the macroeconomy and housing. Focusing on the Hong Kong experience, it is found that exports and the interest rate were two key variables that can explain the movement of housing prices over a long period. A structural break is identified in the first quarter of 1998. Using the cointegration framework, the paper highlights the importance of housing to both the economic health of the domestic sector and the fiscal health of the economy.
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Support from the RGC Grants Committee of Hong Kong (LU3008/00H) is gratefully acknowledged.