Tolerating violence: public opinion of anti-government protests and state repression

How does violence and repression during a protest affect online public attitudes? The literature provides mixed findings, indicating that repression can both deter and mobilize the public. How does the public react to state repression and protesters’ violence? How does the public perception of protesters’ violence affect public attitudes towards state repression? In this study, we consider these questions by analysing more than one million tweets posted during the 2019 Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement. Using text analysis and machine learning techniques, we find that state repression undermines public support for the government. Increasing violence by protesters does not change public attitudes towards the government, However, violent protests neither undermine public support for protesters nor enhance public support for the government, but these protests do decrease public opposition to violent state repression tactics. We also explore how the national security law, a legal framework for state repression, changes public opinions. These findings imply that the public may support government repression even as they continue to support protester violence. This challenges prior assumptions that the public prefers peaceful tactics and punishes those who use violence. As long as both sides are violent, neither side is punished.