Traditional Solutions for Modern Issues? A Latent Class Analysis of Intergenerational Ties and Fertility Intentions in China

This study examines how intergenerational family ties influence fertility intentions in China's ultra-low fertility context, with direct implications for social policy development. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to identify distinct patterns of family ties, and their relationship to fertility intentions was explored through panel regression models using four waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data from 2016 to 2022. Our findings demonstrate that despite rapid socioeconomic modernisation, intergenerational support remains critically important for Chinese families’ reproductive decision-making. Families embedded in stronger support networks consistently report higher fertility intentions, with transitions toward more comprehensive familial support arrangements significantly predicting increased willingness to have children. These results highlight the need for family-centred social policies that recognise and strengthen intergenerational ties in the Chinese context. Rather than focusing exclusively on individual-level interventions, effective pro-natalist policy strategies should include measures such as grandparental childcare subsidies, multi-generational housing incentives, and family leave policies that accommodate extended family caregiving. By reinforcing traditional support structures while acknowledging contemporary realities and the need to address persistent gendered labour market outcomes in the Chinese economy, policymakers can leverage existing family resources to address China’s demographic challenges more effectively.