Understanding Poverty Rate Dynamics in Moderately Poor Urban Neighborhoods: A Competitive Perspective

This study introduces a framework to model moderate-to-high poverty transition in urban neighborhoods using their relative competitive positions within metropolitan areas. Relative competitive position is measured by a variety of neighborhood attributes, including resident and neighborhood characteristics, locational attributes, among others. The model was estimated using the decennial census, using tracts from 1990 and 2000 as proxies for neighborhoods. Results indicate that the competitive model works well as a method to evaluate neighborhood poverty transition. Neighborhoods with relatively unfavorable competitive positions within a metropolitan area experience more poverty growth and therefore are likely to have more concentrated poverty in the future. Based on the results, several recommendations are made to intervene. These include promoting public transit, immigrant assimilation programs, among others.